Modeling particulate nitrate in China: Current findings and future directions.

Particulate nitrate (pNO3) is now becoming the principal component of PM2.5 during severe winter haze episodes in many cities of China. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the key factors controlling pNO3 formation and driving its trends, we reviewed the recent pNO3 modeling studies which mainly focused on the formation mechanism and recent trends of pNO3 as well as its responses to emission controls in China. The results indicate that although recent chemical transport models (CTMs) can reasonably capture the spatial-temporal variations of pNO3, model-observation biases still exist due to large uncertainties in the parameterization of dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5) uptake and ammonia (NH3) emissions, insufficient heterogeneous reaction mechanism, and the predicted low sulfate concentrations in current CTMs. The heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 dominates nocturnal pNO3 formation, however, the contribution to total pNO3 varies among studies, ranging from 21.0% to 51.6%. Moreover, the continuously increasing PM2.5 pNO3 fraction in recent years is mainly due to the decreased sulfur dioxide emissions, the enhanced atmospheric oxidation capacity (AOC), and the weakened nitrate deposition. Reducing NH3 emissions is found to be the most effective control strategy for mitigating pNO3 pollution in China. This review suggests that more field measurements are needed to constrain the parameterization of heterogeneous N2O5 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) uptake. Future studies are also needed to quantify the relationships of pNO3 to AOC, O3, NOx, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in different regions of China under different meteorological conditions. Research on multiple-pollutant control strategies involving NH3, NOX, and VOCs is required to mitigate pNO3 pollution, especially during severe winter haze events.

Significant reduction in atmospheric organic and elemental carbon in PM2.5 in 2+26 cities in northern China.

To better understand the change characteristics and reduction in organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) in particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) driven by the most stringent clean air policies and pandemic-related lockdown measures in China, a comprehensive field campaign was performed to measure the carbonaceous components in PM2.5 on an hourly basis via harmonized analytical methods in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding region (including 2 + 26 cities) from January 1 to December 31, 2020. The results indicated that the annual average concentrations of OC and EC reached as low as 6.6 ± 5.7 and 1.8 ± 1.9 µg/m3, respectively, lower than those obtained in previous studies, which could be attributed to the effectiveness of the Clean Air Action Plan and the impact of the COVID-19-related lockdown measures implemented in China. Marked seasonal and diurnal variations in OC and EC were observed in the 2 + 26 cities. Significant correlations (p < 0.001) between OC and EC were found. The annual average secondary OC levels level ranged from 1.8-5.4 µg/m3, accounting for 37.7-73.0% of the OC concentration in the 2 + 26 cities estimated with the minimum R squared method. Based on Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) algorithms, the light extinction contribution of carbonaceous PM to the total amount reached 21.1% and 26.0% on average, suggesting that carbonaceous PM played a less important role in visibility impairment than did the other chemical components in PM2.5. This study is expected to provide an important real-time dataset and in-depth analysis of the significant reduction in OC and EC in PM2.5 driven by both the Clean Air Action Plan and COVID-19-related lockdown policies over the past few years, which could represent an insightful comparative case study for other developing countries/regions facing similar carbonaceous PM pollution.

Achievements, challenges and global implications of China's carbon neutral pledge.

China has been committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China's pledge of carbon neutrality will play an essential role in galvanising global climate action, which has been largely deferred by the Covid-19 pandemic. China's carbon neutrality could reduce global warming by approximately 0.2-0.3 °C and save around 1.8 million people from premature death due to air pollution. Along with domestic benefits, China's pledge of carbon neutrality is a "game-changer" for global climate action and can inspire other large carbon emitters to contribute actively to mitigate carbon emissions, particularly countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) routes. In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it is necessary to decarbonise all sectors in China, including energy, industry, transportation, construction, and agriculture. However, this transition will be very challenging, because major technological breakthroughs and large-scale investments are required. Strong policies and implementation plans are essential, including sustainable demand, decarbonizing electricity, electrification, fuel switching, and negative emissions. In particular, if China can peak carbon emissions earlier, it can lower the costs of the carbon neutral transition and make it easier to do so over a longer time horizon. China's pledge of carbon neutrality by 2060 and recent pledges at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) are significant contributions and critical steps for global climate action. However, countries worldwide need to achieve carbon neutrality to keep the global temperature from growing beyond the level that will cause catastrophic damages globally.

Integrated process analysis retrieval of changes in ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter during the COVID-19 outbreak in the coastal city of Kannur, India.

The Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to evaluate the air quality in the coastal city of Kannur, India, during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown. From the Pre1 (March 1-24, 2020) period to the Lock (March 25-April 19, 2020) and Tri (April 20-May 9, 2020) periods, the Kerala state government gradually imposed a strict lockdown policy. Both the simulations and observations showed a decline in the PM2.5 concentrations and an enhancement in the O3 concentrations during the Lock and Tri periods compared with that in the Pre1 period. Integrated process rate (IPR) analysis was employed to isolate the contributions of the individual atmospheric processes. The results revealed that the vertical transport from the upper layers dominated the surface O3 formation, comprising 89.4%, 83.1%, and 88.9% of the O3 sources during the Pre1, Lock, and Tri periods, respectively. Photochemistry contributed negatively to the O3 concentrations at the surface layer. Compared with the Pre1 period, the O3 enhancement during the Lock period was primarily attributable to the lower negative contribution of photochemistry and the lower O3 removal rate by horizontal transport. During the Tri period, a slower consumption of O3 by gas-phase chemistry and a stronger vertical import from the upper layers to the surface accounted for the increase in O3. Emission and aerosol processes constituted the major positive contributions to the net surface PM2.5, accounting for a total of 48.7%, 38.4%, and 42.5% of PM2.5 sources during the Pre1, Lock, and Tri periods, respectively. The decreases in the PM2.5 concentrations during the Lock and Tri periods were primarily explained by the weaker PM2.5 production from emission and aerosol processes. The increased vertical transport rate of PM2.5 from the surface layer to the upper layers was also a reason for the decrease in the PM2.5 during the Lock periods.

Estimation of secondary PM2.5 in China and the United States using a multi-tracer approach

PM2.5, generated via both direct emission and secondary formation, can have varying environmental impacts due to different physical and chemical properties of its components. However, traditional methods to quantify different PM2.5 components are often based on online or offline observations and numerical models, which are generally high economic cost- or labor-intensive. In this study, we develop a new method, named Multi-Tracer Estimation Algorithm (MTEA), to identify the primary and secondary components from routine observation of PM2.5. By comparing with long-term and short-term measurements of aerosol chemical components in China and the United States, it is proven that MTEA can successfully capture the magnitude and variation of the primary PM2.5 (PPM) and secondary PM2.5 (SPM). Applying MTEA to the China National Air Quality Network, we find that (1) SPM accounted for 63.5 % of the PM2.5 in cities in southern China on average during 2014–2018, while the proportion dropped to 57.1 % in the north of China, and at the same time the secondary proportion in regional background regions was ∼ 19 % higher than that in populous regions;(2) the summertime secondary PM2.5 proportion presented a slight but consistent increasing trend (from 58.5 % to 59.2 %) in most populous cities, mainly because of the recent increase in O3 pollution in China;(3) the secondary PM2.5 proportion in Beijing significantly increased by 34 % during the COVID-19 lockdown, which might be the main reason for the observed unexpected PM pollution in this special period;and finally, (4) SPM and O3 showed similar positive correlations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions, but the correlations between total PM2.5 and O3 in these two regions, as determined from PPM levels, were quite different. In general, MTEA is a promising tool for efficiently estimating PPM and SPM, and has huge potential for future PM mitigation.

Assessment of sectoral NOx emission reductions during COVID-19 lockdown using combined satellite and surface observations and source-oriented model simulations

Large emission reductions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown policies in China have been extensively reported since the outbreak, while assessments of sectoral emission changes during that period are still limited. In this study, a source-oriented community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model was applied to quantify NO2 concentrations from major emission sectors. A new optimization approach was employed to obtain the sectorial emission reductions using satellite and ground-level observations as constraints. The optimized emissions significantly improved the model performance of NO2 during the lockdown period. February NOx emission changes varied with regions and sectors, with relatively larger reductions in transportation (286.6 kt) and industrial sources (260.1 kt). The maximum amount of NOx emission reduction occurred in the North China Plain (230.6 kt). Our work presents a quick and reliable technique for assessing sector-specific emission changes due to short-term emission control policies.

Long-term health impact of PM2.5 under whole-year COVID-19 lockdown in China.

The health impact of changes in particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) pollution associated with the COVID-19 lockdown has aroused great interest, but the estimation of the long-term health effects is difficult because of the lack of an annual mean air pollutant concentration under a whole-year lockdown scenario. We employed a time series decomposition method to predict the monthly PM2.5 concentrations in urban cities under permanent lockdown in 2020. The premature mortality attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 was quantified by the risk factor model from the latest epidemiological studies. Under a whole-year lockdown scenario, annual mean PM2.5 concentrations in cites ranged from 5.4 to 68.0 µg m-3, and the national mean concentration was reduced by 32.2% compared to the 2015-2019 mean. The Global Exposure Mortality Model estimated that 837.3 (95% CI: 699.8-968.4) thousand people in Chinese cities would die prematurely from illnesses attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5. Compared to 2015-2019 mean levels, 140.2 (95% CI: 122.2-156.0) thousand premature deaths (14.4% of the annual mean deaths from 2015 to 2019) attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5 were avoided. Because PM2.5 concentrations were still high under the whole-year lockdown scenario, the health benefit is limited, indicating that continuous emission-cutting efforts are required to reduce the health risks of air pollution. Since a similar scenario may be achieved through promotion of electric vehicles and the innovation of industrial technology in the future, the estimated long-term health impact under the whole year lockdown scenario can establish an emission-air quality-health impact linkage and provide guidance for future emission control strategies from a health protection perspective.

Persistent high PM2.5 pollution driven by unfavorable meteorological conditions during the COVID-19 lockdown period in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China.

Lockdown measures to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic in China halted most non-essential activities on January 23, 2020. Despite significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region still experienced high air pollution concentrations. Employing two emissions reduction scenarios, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to investigate the PM2.5 concentrations change in this region. The model using the scenario (C3) with greater traffic reductions performed better compared to the observed PM2.5. Compared with the no reductions base-case (scenario C1), PM2.5 reductions with scenario C3 were 2.70, 2.53, 2.90, 2.98, 3.30, 2.81, 2.82, 2.98, 2.68, and 2.83 µg/m3 in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Cangzhou, Chengde, Handan, Hengshui, Tangshan, and Xingtai, respectively. During high-pollution days in scenario C3, the percentage reductions in PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Cangzhou, Chengde, Handan, Hengshui, Tangshan, and Xingtai were 3.76, 3.54, 3.28, 3.22, 3.57, 3.56, 3.47, 6.10, 3.61, and 3.67%, respectively. However, significant increases caused by unfavorable meteorological conditions counteracted the emissions reduction effects resulting in high air pollution in BTH region during the lockdown period. This study shows that effective air pollution control strategies incorporating these results are urgently required in BTH to avoid severe pollution.

Puzzling Haze Events in China During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Shutdown.

It is a puzzle as to why more severe haze formed during the New Year Holiday in 2020 (NYH-20), when China was in an unprecedented state of shutdown to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, than in 2019 (NYH-19). We performed a comprehensive measurement and modeling analysis of the aerosol chemistry and physics at multiple sites in China (mainly in Shanghai) before, during, and after NYH-19 and NYH-20. Much higher secondary aerosol fraction in PM2.5 were observed during NYH-20 (73%) than during NYH-19 (59%). During NYH-20, PM2.5 levels correlated significantly with the oxidation ratio of nitrogen (r 2 = 0.77, p < 0.01), and aged particles from northern China were found to impede atmospheric new particle formation and growth in Shanghai. A markedly enhanced efficiency of nitrate aerosol formation was observed along the transport pathways during NYH-20, despite the overall low atmospheric NO2 levels.